Opportunities, challenges in store for rice exports after new year
After a record year in 2024 export volume and value, Vietnam’s rice sector is moving into a new year of challenges and opportunities, with significant swings expected in both supply and demand for rice on the world stage.
New records
Surpassing the impressive achievements of 2023, Vietnam’s rice exports in 2024 hit 9 million tonnes for the first time, generating 5.8 billion USD — a 10.6% increase in volume and a 23% rise in value. The average export price is also expected to rise by 16.7% compared to 2023. This marks a major milestone after 35 years of rice exports. The results also helped Vietnam secure the position as the third largest rice exporter in the world after India and Thailand.
Nguyen Ngoc Nam, President of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), highlighted that despite predictions of price insecurity due to climate change and global tensions, Vietnam managed to both food security and strong export opportunities. India imposed a ban on white rice and broken rice exports in mid-2023, while many food-importing countries increased purchases. Amidst this backdrop, Vietnam has capitalised on the rising demand.
Vietnamese rice is now exported to around 150 countries and territories. The Philippines remains Vietnam’s largest rice export market, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana. In 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports to the Philippines reached nearly 2.5 billion USD, up 57.2% compared to the same period in 2023. By November, Vietnam’s rice exports to Indonesia surpassed 1.1 million tonnes, valued at 679 million USD, a 6.2% increase in volume and a 10.5% rise in value compared to 2023.
The African market is also showing strong growth. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s Asian-African Market Department, Africa’s rapid urbanisation and rising incomes have spurred increased rice demand, particularly for fragrant rice. With limited rice production capacity in the region, African importers are seeking stable, competitively priced rice from Vietnam. Côte d’Ivoire is a leading importer, while Ghana, Senegal, and Cameroon have all seen steady increases in rice imports.
However, one key export market, China, has declined in recent years. In 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports to reached just 250,000 tonnes, down 71% compared to 2023. This follows a steady decline in exports to China since 2022.
Nong Duc Lai, Vietnam’s Trade Counsellor in China, explained that while China remains a major consumer of rice, the country is investing heavily in domestic rice production to reduce its reliance on imports.
“Along with its management measures through licensing of import enterprises, China has increased quality and packaging standards for fragrant rice and premium varieties, making it difficult for Vietnamese rice to compete, particularly against rice from Thailand and Cambodia…”
Nong Duc Lai, Vietnam’s Trade Counsellor in China
For high-quality rice, Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Trung An High-Tech Agricultural Corporation, noted that while the volume and value of premium rice exports increased in 2024, the growth has not been as sharp as for regular rice. Premium varieties and specialty rice have been successfully exported to the EU, Japan, and Malaysia, maintaining stable prices above 1,000 USD per tonne. Demand for these premium varieties has remained relatively consistent, he added.
2025 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2025, experts expect the global rice market to remain dynamic, though supply and demand fluctuations are likely to continue. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, President of the Vietnam Food Association analyses:
“For export markets, while some countries may increase imports, the pace of buying from others is expected to slow down. For instance, Indonesia, after purchasing heavily in 2024, now has its highest rice reserves in five years. This could present a challenge for Vietnamese exporters, who will need to pivot and diversify markets and customers.”
Nguyen Ngoc Nam, President of the Vietnam Food Association
The abundance of rice supply and slower short-term demand have already begun to impact prices. In December 2024, Vietnam’s export price for 5% broken rice dropped to 481 USD per tonne, a 39 USD decrease from the start of the month, and the lowest price in 19 months. Similarly, prices for 25% broken and 100% broken rice have also fallen significantly, reaching 454 USD and 383 USD per tonne, respectively.
Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Trung An High-Tech Agricultural Corporation noted that rice prices – both globally and domestically – are expected to decrease in 2025 due to intensifying competition in the export market.
“However, in the premium segment, Vietnamese rice is well-established with varieties like ST24, ST25, and Jasmine, and Vietnamese exporters are confident in competing well with rivals from other countries…”
Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Trung An High-Tech Agricultural Corporation
Photo: VNA
Photo: VNA
Exporters are optimistic that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and local authorities will accelerate efforts to implement the 1-million hectare high-quality, low-emission rice area scheme, ensuring a consistent, high-quality rice supply, enabling businesses to confidently diversify their markets and expand in premium segments, not just in the EU but also in Japan, China, and the Middle East.
Focusing on high-quality rice exports will not only help reinforce Vietnam’s position in the global rice market but also give businesses leverage in price negotiations, reducing the pressure from fluctuating prices in the global food reserve market./.
VNA
