Along the topple of the long-time rulers, is the largely expected rise of Islamic forces in the affected countries. The kind of dramatic changes in the political landscape make it obscure over which way these countries will head for.

 

PROTEST FOR COMMON GOALS

 

Akrm Houssam, an expert with the Cairo-based National Center for Middle East Studies, noted the people in the unrest-hit countries had long been barred from real political life and unable to participate in the decision making to improve their lives. Problems in the fields like economy and education, and spreading corruption within the leadership brought the people to the streets to speak their minds.

 

The unrest in the Arab region shared similar slogans of freedom, dignity, justice, and the demands for the resignation of their long-time rulers.

 

"The reasons behind the turmoil were common, but the situation differed demographically, said Noha Bakr, political professor with the American University in Cairo.

 

It was easy for Egypt, with its 80 million population, to gather a million-man rally, where protests could develop into a turmoil that brought down its leader, Bakr told Xinhua, adding but it was different in Bahrain whose population was less, that the turmoil couldn't be raised.

 

Besides, army played a key role in making the difference, she said, citing that in Egypt and Tunisia, where the army had stood with protesters, the turmoil lasted for a short time and caused less casualties, while the majority of the soldiers in Libya, Syria and Yemen had been loyal to their rulers, so that the unrest was relatively long and produced more casualties.

 

RISE OF ISLAMISTS

 

Islamist forces that had been politically marginalized under the fallen leadership, were awakened in the turmoil.

 

Late November, Morocco's King Mohammed VI named Abdelilah Benkirane, leader of the moderate Islamic Justice and Development Party (PJD), as the new prime minister. The PJD won the recent parliamentary elections with 107 seats in the 395-seat legislature.

 

In Tunisia, the major Islamist party Ennahdha claimed a victory in the October parliamentary polls with 89 seats in the 217-member body, while, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the ultra-conservative Salafist Nour Party jointly won more than 60 percent of the valid votes in the first round of the elections held in late November, expected to dominate the parliament.

 

In the future, the Muslim groups could become "lucrative," said Saed Lawendy, an expert with the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies based in Cairo, he noted the people who were disappointed by the former leadership, placed their hopes on the Islamists.

 

Contradicting Saed, Nabil Zaki, another expert of the study center, said although the Islamists now have their chance to promote themselves, the people would not accept them in the near future if they adopt an extremist approach. Bakr compared the Islamists to a black box that no one knows what it contains or whether they will be good or not.

 

"It all depends. If the moderate Islamists ally with the liberals, the situation will be promising in a way or another, but anyway, the prospect isn't clear yet," Bakr said.

 

The problem is not the Islamists themselves. It is about how the Islamists deal with such specific issues as the rights of the ethnic or religious minorities and the role of women in the society, said Houssam, the expert with the National Center for Middle East Studies.

 

MOVE TOWARDS DEMOCRACY

 

Democracy is the only remedy for the current situation, Houssam said, noting the latest developments could be classified as the beginning of the second stage of modernization, with the first stage being the end of colonization and the independence of the Arab countries.

 

Houssam cited that Egypt will find its own political model, perhaps somewhere between the parliamentary and presidential systems, which means the country needs a strong president, but his or her power needs to be checked by a strong parliament.

 

Houssam said if the new governments could deal with the various challenges successfully, the Arab countries would embrace a future of development, democracy and openness, if not, domestic strifes or even separation could occur.

 

Besides, analysts also list a possible conflict between Arab countries and Israel, among whom Lawendy said protesters will press their governments to take actions against Israel's hostile practices, thus putting the Jewish country under pressure.

 

Xinhua