Vietnam’s economic performance in 2009 has been highlighted by its positive growth, stable inflation rate, high industrial output and success in attracting foreign investment despite the negative impacts of the global economic crisis.

 

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by around 5.2 percent, 0.2 percent higher than the target set by the National Assembly, the lowest growth for many years.

 

The whole year’s consumer price index recorded a year on year rise of only 6.88 percent, lower than the forecast of 7 percent. The State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) control of the gold exchange, gold imports and flexible adjustments in the foreign exchange rates have all had a positive impact on the price index and inflation rate.

 

This year’s industrial production is expected to post a year on year rise of 7.6 percent, to more than 696.5 trillion VND (about 37 billion USD). Of this figure, the non-State and foreign-invested sectors recorded year on year increases of 9.9 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively.

 

The nation attracted more than 21.4 billion USD in foreign investment capital, equal to 30 percent of last year’s figure. A total of 215 projects asked for an increase of 5.13 billion USD in capital this year, representing 98.3 percent of the additional capital supplied in 2008, the year that FDI reached record levels.

 

Also in 2009, the international community of donors pledged more than 8 billion USD in official development assistance (ODA) to Vietnam in 2010, a record figure so far.

 

However, the global economic downturn has badly affected Vietnam’s exports. The country’s export revenues only reached 56.5 billion USD this year, a year on year drop of nearly 10 percent, said the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

 

This decrease was attributable to the sharp drop in global trade and the low prices of key staple commodities.

 

Many experts say that Vietnam ’s economy will continue to recover in 2010 but there remain many challenges, especially to the macro economy and inflation.

 

The Research Director of the Fullbright Economic Teaching Programme in Vietnam Vu Thanh Tu Anh, warned of Vietnam’s unstable economic growth due to the risks of inflation, the budget, trade deficit, the pressure of the VND devaluating and the foreign exchange rate.

 

For sustainable economic development, economist Bui Kien Thanh says the Government should set up indirect investment funds instead of calling for direct investment and give priority to restructuring enterprises.

 

Economists have forecast that Vietnam ’s economy could grow at 6.5 percent while its export revenues could rise by 6 percent, with the consumer price index increasing by less than 7 percent next year.

(VNA)