IMF revises down Indonesia’s growth projection in 2022

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Indonesia's 2022 economic growth forecast to 5.6 percent in 2022, from 5.9 percent in its October report, due to the spread of the Omicron variant and slower global economic growth.

“The balance of risks to the outlook is improving, but remains tilted to the downside,” said Assistant Director in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Cheng Hoon Lim. She added that the emergence of more aggressive COVID-19 variants could put further pressure on the health system and lead to renewed mobility restrictions, and risks of spillovers from tighter global financial conditions have increased.

Meanwhile, on the upside, the boost from global commodity prices could last longer than expected, while recent and prospective structural reforms could reduce the extent of economic scarring in Indonesia, she said.

According to her, with the recovery underway, gradually restoring the central tenets of the pre-pandemic macroeconomic policy frameworks will reinforce Indonesia’s strong policy track record.

However, the IMF team noted that if severe downside risks—such as a slower recovery or a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 infections and related containment measures—were to materialize, longer-lasting pandemic support could become necessary, Cheng Hoon Lim said./.

VNA