ADB anticipates economic growth of 6.5% for Vietnam this year

Vietnam’s economic growth is forecast to decrease slightly at 6.5% this year before rising to 6.8% next year, according to the “Asian Development Outlook” report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) at a press conference in Hanoi on April 4.

An overview of the press conference

The report also outlines that the country’s inflation rate is projected to increase to 4.5% this year, increasing to 4.3% ahead in 2024.

At the event, Andrew Jeffries, country director of the ADB in Vietnam, pointed out that the country’s economic growth will be constrained this year by the global slowdown, continued monetary tightening, and spillover effects from global geopolitical tensions.

However, the ADB representative emphasized that public investment will be the key driver in terms of economic recovery and growth in the year ahead.  Accordingly, the government is committed to disbursing US$30.0 billion in the year, of which 90% had been allocated to disbursing ministries and provinces as of January 2023.

With a considerable amount of public investment expected to be disbursed this year coupled with China’s reopening, these factors expected to help the national economy counter these headwinds moving forward, he noted.

According to the report, falling global demand drove the industrial production index down by 6.3% in the first two months of 2023 relative to the same period in 2022.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index sank below 50 for four consecutive months as export-driven manufacturing contracted while consumption-led manufacturing was unable to take up the slack, then the index revived from 46.4 in January 2023 to 51.2 in February 2023. Industry growth is forecast to slow to 7.5%

Services are expected to expand by 8.0% in 2023 on revived tourism and associated services with China removing Vietnam from the list of the countries that could receive its outbound tourists recently.

In addition, China's reopening could generate significant demand for Vietnam agricultural exports, as the country receives 45% of Vietnam’s exports of fruit and vegetables. Agriculture is therefore expected to expand by 3.2% in 2023.

The report also pointed out that surprise policy rate cuts make Vietnam the first economy in Southeast Asia to ease monetary policy with monetary and fiscal measures continuing to support the economy in the time ahead.

VOV